Super Horse System

The Super Horse System

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster

The super horse system is based around a few set of simple rules and involves some key points that not everyone can manage.

1. Odds on favourites win 50% of their races.

2. If you can pick horses that have a high win ratio (70% to 100%) you will have a high strike rate.

3. Out of the hundreds of horses that run in the National Hunt and Flat seasons only a very few horses have such a high strike rate and are what I call “Quality Horses”. These are horses such as Big Buck’s, Hurricane Fly, Frankel, Sprinter Sacre, Sizing Europe etc.

4. Even with low odds by betting on this small subset of horses can lead to profits.

As the example below shows by betting on the horses in the table between the start of September 2012 and February 16th you would have made £1022.80 at £10 win stakes and even £285.40 at £10 stakes on the place markets. This even accounts for more than a few races like the Betfair Chase and the Hennessy Gold Cup in which two horses that were both in my “Quality Horse” table raced each other.

5. The system relies on you being able to control yourself and wait until only a horse in your “Quality Horse” table is running before making a bet.

You probably hear on Channel 4 racing when these horses are running in trials for big events about big £50,000+ bets being placed on the hot favourite just minutes before the race starts. These are bets by professional punters who know that by betting big, BUT only on a horse with a very high win rate, will return a profit.  They are able to wait until the right betting opportunity occurs instead of throwing their money away chasing their loses or betting for fun. They treat each bet like an investment opportunity and if you want to make money from your betting so should you.

Therefore you either need to be able to temper yourself and treat every bet like an investment and NOT a gamble as the average punter does, and then walk away after winning a race before waiting weeks or even months until the next opportunity.

Or you should split your betting bank into two parts. One part can be used for your day-to-day gambling (if you have a need to bet more often) and the other is used JUST for betting on horses in your “Quality Horse” table.

6. So how do you make a “Quality Horse” table?

Well you don’t have to if you are a member of UK Horse Racing Tipster as I have my own and I have started publishing the current horses (both National Hunt and Flat horses) in a new table every month under the menu “Horse Racing Tips” > “Top Horses”.

7. The horses in this table get added through a multitude of ways. If you wanted to build your own table then you would be looking for factors such as:

  • Horses with a very high win ratio.
  • Horses who have won a large number of Grade 1 or Group 1 races.
  • Horses who have won at least 2 major races such as the Derby, the 2,000 Guineas, the Hennesy Gold Gup, the Cheltenham Gold Cup, the Prix du Jockey Club, the Prix de l’Arc de Trimomphe, The Dubai World Cup and other major Group 1 or Grade 1 races.
  • Two year old horses with 80-100% win ratio’s – e.g horses to follow during their 3rd year and those who have won major 2 year old races that are good signs of wins to come.
  • Devise a ranking system to rate your runners by. My own rating system is devised by adding points to each horse in a race by looking at factors such as: the date of their last race and win, their win ratio, their experience over course, distance, going, class, jockey and weight. Look at whether they have beaten any of the other runners in the race and if so was it was over similar conditions as the current race. There is also a myriad of other factors that need considering. However if you cannot be bothered to devise your own ranking system then you should use my very own system. My monthly “Quality Horses” table shows the maximum rating level each horse has achieved next to it so you don’t need to try and calculate it yourself. If you notice the top 5 horses I have had in my table (including ex horses) they have all had very high rankings.

8. Personally as my article on the subject explains I split my own “Quality Horses” table up into 3 types of horses.

Super Horses

These are horses who win or almost win everything. They include horses in the past like Frankel, Black Caviar, Big Buck’s and so on. I use multiple conditions to add this unique set of horses including factors such as:

  • A large number of wins at Group 1 or Grade 1.
  • They have had at least 5 races at Group 1/Grade 1 level.
  • They have won at least 3 races at Class 1 level (this includes grade/group 2, 3 and listed races).

Great Horses

These are horses that are not right up there with the unbeatable but have a high win percentage and have won one of my “top races”.The “Top Races” include all the Group 1 races, the top Grade 1 races, Gold / Silver Cups, The Grand National, the Hennessy Gold Cup, The Arkle Challenge, The Prix de l’Arc d’Triomphe, The World Hurdle, The Prix Du Jockey Club, The Argento Chase, The Dubai World Cup and many more. However they are all centered around races in the UK, Ireland, France and the UAE and mostly the UK or Ireland.

Two Year Olds

These are up and coming 2 year olds who have won group / grade 1′s in their first year of racing as well as top races like the Racing Post Trophy or the Dewherst Stakes and they are to be watched in the their 3rd year racing for the 2,000 Guineas and possible Derby contention.

 

Top Rated Horses

The following 5 horses are the top rated horses I have had in my table since I devised the rating system I now use to rank my runners.

Horse Name Highest Form Rating
Frankel 1824
So You Think 1144
Hurricane Fly 1194
Camelot 1176
Big Buck’s 1032

You can see the quality of Frankel just by the difference in Form Rating that he had on his last race when compared to other good horses such as So You Think or jumpers like Big Buck’s or Hurricane Fly.

Remember this is my rating system and is based on the current conditions of the race, whether the horse has beaten or lost to other runners, whether it has proven itself over the going (e.g boggy heavy ground), whether it has won over the course and distance, has won with the jockey, the current strike rate of the jockey and trainer and many other factors which are too many to explain here.

So don’t try to judge it, or start talking about other horses or why Big Buck’s should be above Hurricane Fly or so on. The computer algorithm I use to create this Form Rating is always being tweaked and changed so a rating taken a year ago could be totally different from one taken a day ago for the same horse and race conditions.

An Example Profit / Loss Scenario

The following table lists the horses that would have been bet on, the race, their SP and any profit or loss since September 2012.

Some of these horses may no longer be in my “Quality Horses” table as unless they are “fixed” (unable to be deleted) such as horses with names like: Big Buck’s, Hurricane Fly and in the past Frankel and So You Think. All these horses could be taken out or re-added during the rebuilding of the table each night when I re-analyse the data so make sure to check the table when it is re-published every month.

The example below shows you that by purely betting on the horses that I had in my table between the start of September 2012 and February 16th I would have made £1022.80 at £10 win stakes and £285.40 at £10 place stakes.

This even accounts for more than a few races including the Betfair Chase, The 32Red Hurdle and the Hennessy Gold Cup in which at least two horses from my “Quality Horse” table raced against each other.

Even by placing £10 bets on both runners e.g Long Run and Silviniaco Conti in the Betfair Chase,  Rock On Ruby and Darlan in the 32Red Hurdle  or Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs in the Hennessy Gold Cup £1,022 in profit would still have been made.

Obviously when this happens you could choose to bet on both and most certainly make a small loss (due to both horses having too small a price to dutch the bet). Or you should pick just one of these quality horses and hope it wins.

You could go with your own opinion or use the rating value I have given each horse that month to choose the horse to back. This worked for me in the Hennessy Gold Cup when I chose Sir Des Champs over Flemenstar purely because my ranking for Sir Des Champs was higher.

Horse Date Race Pos SP Profit
Novirak Sep 13 2012 3:40PM Lighthouse Club Jump Jockeys Derby Handicap 1 7/2 35.00
The New One Oct 1 2012 2:00PM Newquay Zoo ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle 1 2/7 11.00
Sizing Europe Oct 6 2012 3:50PM PWC Champion Chase 1 11/10 20.50
Fingal Bay Oct 13 2012 3:00PM Blue Square Bet Robert Mottram Memorial Novices’ Chase 1 8/13 12.00
Grouse Lodge Oct 18 2012 3:40PM BetVictorFans On Twitter Thank Lee Wilson Novices’ Hurdle 1 5/4 38.00
The New One Oct 19 2012 2:10PM Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle 1 51/50 10.20
Jezki Oct 29 2012 12:55PM O’Callaghan Hotels Supporting Kildare GAA Maiden Hurdle 1 7/4 23.50
Monksland Nov 2 2012 2:05PM WKD Hurdle 1 4/5 54.00
My Tent Or Yours Nov 3 2012 2:00PM GL Events Owen Brown Novices’ Hurdle 1 4/7 5.70
Une Artiste Nov 3 2012 2:15PM OLBG.com Mares’ Hurdle 1 13/8 16.30
Cape Tribulation Nov 3 2012 2:50PM John Smith’s Hurdle 5 9/2 -10.00
Silviniaco Conti Nov 3 2012 3:25PM bet365 Charlie Hall Chase 1 11/10 11.00
Grouse Lodge Nov 10 2012 12:25PM Premier Traffic Management ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle 4 4/1 -10.00
Jezki Nov 10 2012 1:05PM Fishery Lane Hurdle 1 13/8 25.50
Zarkandar Nov 10 2012 2:50PM totepool.com Elite Hurdle 1 10/3 33.30
At Fishers Cross Nov 11 2012 12:55PM wyevalleydemolition.co.uk Novices’ Hurdle 1 4/7 56.00
Flemenstar Nov 11 2012 2:50PM Irish Form Book Fortria Chase 1 10/11 11.60
Sizing Europe Nov 15 2012 2:25PM Clonmel Oil Chase 1 1/7 1.40
Fingal Bay Nov 16 2012 1:15PM Steel Plate And Sections Novices’ Chase 2 5/4 -10.00
Al Ferof Nov 17 2012 2:35PM Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase 1 8/1 80.00
Glens Melody Nov 17 2012 3:15PM www.punchestown.com Maiden Hurdle 2 5/2 -10.00
Hurricane Fly Nov 18 2012 2:15PM Dobbins & Madigans At Punchestown Morgiana Hurdle 1 2/5 4.00
Shutthefrontdoor Nov 20 2012 1:40PM totequadpot E.B.F. ‘National Hunt’ Maiden Hurdle 3 1/4 -10.00
Oscar Whisky Nov 24 2012 2:45PM Coral Hurdle 1 8/15 5.30
Long Run Nov 24 2012 3:05PM Betfair Chase 2 11/8 -10.00
Silviniaco Conti Nov 24 2012 3:05PM Betfair Chase 1 7/4 17.50
Grouse Lodge Nov 29 2012 1:20PM Crabbie’s Spiffing Alcoholic Ginger Beer Novices’ Hurdle 1 7/2 35.00
Big Buck’s Dec 1 2012 2:00PM Sportingbet Long Distance Hurdle 1 1/12 0.80
At Fishers Cross Dec 1 2012 2:35PM Sportingbet Handicap Hurdle 1 4/1 45.00
Bobs Worth Dec 1 2012 3:10PM Hennessy Gold Cup Chase 1 4/1 40.00
Jezki Dec 2 2012 1:05PM Bar One Racing Royal Bond Novice Hurdle 1 9/4 22.50
Arvika Ligeonniere Dec 2 2012 1:35PM Bar One Racing Drinmore Novice Chase 1 2/1 20.00
Monksland Dec 2 2012 2:40PM Bar One Racing Hatton’s Grace Hurdle 2 4/1 -10.00
Glens Melody Dec 6 2012 1:15PM Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Mares Maiden Hurdle 1 1/8 1.30
Fingal Bay Dec 7 2012 1:00PM Harry Dutfield Memorial Novices’ Chase 0 1/12 -10.00
Sprinter Sacre Dec 8 2012 3:05PM Sportingbet Tingle Creek Chase 1 4/11 3.60
Flemenstar Dec 9 2012 2:00PM John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase 1 61/50 12.20
Sir Des Champs Dec 9 2012 2:00PM John Durkan Memorial Punchestown Chase 2 5/4 -10.00
At Fishers Cross Dec 14 2012 3:05PM Citipost Handicap Hurdle 1 11/4 27.50
Rock On Ruby Dec 15 2012 3:05PM StanJames.com International Hurdle 3 5/2 -10.00
Zarkandar Dec 15 2012 3:05PM StanJames.com International Hurdle 1 6/5 12.00
Oscar Whisky Dec 15 2012 3:40PM Osborne House Relkeel Hurdle 1 1/5 2.00
Boston Bob Dec 16 2012 12:25PM Irish Stallion Farms E.B.F. Beginners Chase 1 1/5 2.00
Simonsig Dec 21 2012 2:30PM Betfred Novices’ Chase 1 2/9 2.20
Cape Tribulation Dec 26 2012 1:45PM Betfair. Don’t Settle For Less Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase 1 7/2 35.00
Darlan Dec 26 2012 2:35PM williamhill.com Christmas Hurdle 1 3/1 30.00
Arvika Ligeonniere Dec 26 2012 2:55PM Racing Post Novice Chase 1 9/10 9.00
Grouse Lodge Dec 26 2012 3:05PM Exclusive Mobile Offers Text Tote To 89660 Beginners’ Chase 1 10/11 9.10
Long Run Dec 26 2012 3:10PM William Hill King George VI Chase 1 15/8 18.80
Simonsig Dec 27 2012 12:55PM williamhill.com Novices’ Chase 1 1/6 1.70
Sizing Europe Dec 27 2012 1:25PM Paddy Power Dial-A-Bet Chase 1 1/3 3.30
Jezki Dec 27 2012 2:00PM Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle 1 11/8 13.80
Monksland Dec 28 2012 1:25PM woodiesdiy.com Christmas Hurdle 1 11/4 27.50
Sir Des Champs Dec 28 2012 3:00PM Lexus Chase 4 9/4 -10.00
Flemenstar Dec 28 2012 3:00PM Lexus Chase 3 5/4 -10.00
Hurricane Fly Dec 29 2012 2:00PM Istabraq Festival Hurdle 1 1/5 2.00
Glens Melody Dec 29 2012 2:35PM I.T.B.A Fillies Scheme E.B.F. Mares Hurdle 3 2/1 -10.00
My Tent Or Yours Dec 29 2012 3:50PM Betfred Mobile Lotto Charity Introductory Hurdle 2 4/11 -10.00
Shutthefrontdoor Dec 31 2012 12:40PM 32Red.com Maiden Hurdle 1 15/8 18.80
Une Artiste Jan 5 2013 12:45PM 32Red.com Mares’ Hurdle 1 7/4 17.50
My Tent Or Yours Jan 11 2013 1:20PM E.B.F. Connolly’s Red Mills ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle 1 4/7 5.70
The New One Jan 12 2013 3:00PM Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle 1 1/2 5.00
Rumbury Grey Jan 16 2013 4:05PM Betfred ‘Bonus King Bingo’ Hunters’ Chase 4 7/1 -10.00
Shutthefrontdoor Jan 17 2013 4:20PM Higos Insurance Services Ltd Crewkerne ‘National Hunt’ Novices’ Hurdle 1 1/5 2.00
Arvika Ligeonniere Jan 26 2013 1:45PM Frank Ward Solicitors Arkle Novice Chase 0 8/13 -10.00
Sprinter Sacre Jan 26 2013 1:50PM Victor Chandler Chase 1 1/5 2.00
Cape Tribulation Jan 26 2013 2:25PM Argento Chase 1 7/1 70.00
At Fishers Cross Jan 26 2013 3:00PM Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle 1 13/2 65.00
The New One Jan 26 2013 3:00PM Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle 2 4/5 -10.00
Oscar Whisky Jan 26 2013 3:35PM Rewards4Racing Cleeve Hurdle 2 2/1 -10.00
Glens Melody Jan 27 2013 12:55PM Frank Ward Solicitors Solerina Mares Novice Hurdle 1 9/2 45.00
Hurricane Fly Jan 27 2013 1:55PM BHP Insurance Irish Champion Hurdle 1 1/6 1.70
Sizing Europe Feb 3 2013 2:20PM Boylesports.com Tied Cottage Chase 1 1/8 1.30
Rock On Ruby Feb 4 2013 3:00PM 32Red Hurdle 1 13/8 16.30
Darlan Feb 4 2013 3:00PM 32Red Hurdle 0 53/50 -10.00
Shutthefrontdoor Feb 6 2013 4:05PM Pertemps Handicap Hurdle 1 9/2 45.00
Silviniaco Conti Feb 9 2013 2:25PM Betfair Denman Chase 1 8/11 7.30
Boston Bob Feb 9 2013 2:45PM Dr. P.J. Moriarty Novice Chase 1 6/4 15.00
Flemenstar Feb 9 2013 3:20PM Hennessy Gold Cup 2 4/5 -10.00
Sir Des Champs Feb 9 2013 3:20PM Hennessy Gold Cup 1 11/8 13.80
My Tent Or Yours Feb 9 2013 3:35PM Betfair Hurdle 1 5/1 50.00
Grouse Lodge Feb 9 2013 3:50PM 32RedPoker.com Novices’ Chase 3 4/1 -10.00
Zarkandar Feb 16 2013 3:35PM Bathwick Tyres Kingwell Hurdle 1 1/3 3.30

So remember that if you are able to treat your bets as investments instead of “gambles” and are able to wait weeks between placing bets this system is a sure-fire way of making money.

However if you are the sort of person who needs to bet every day or who will always “just put one more on” after a win or tries to chase your loses then I would advise you to not only seek help from Gamblers Anonymous but probably give up gambling altogether.

This site is aimed at people who want to make money from their bets and the only way to do that is by changing your thinking so that you become that bettor you hear about on Channel 4 who has just put down £50,000 on Hurricane Fly at a price of 1.15 because they know it will win and you are not going to be placing other bets that day.

Remember to check out the monthly “Quality Horse” tables that I am now publishing for members each month under the “Horse Racing Tips” > “Top Horses” menu option to get your monthly rankings and list of quality horses.

Also this system is perfect for use in conjunction with the Free Bet System in which you take advantage of all the free bet offers the online bookies use to entice members to join. Read about how these systems can be used together here.

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