Favourite Win Bias

Favourite Win Bias

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster

From my own large database of race history it is clear that certain courses have a better favourite bias than others.

By that I mean that a favourite runner has a higher probability of winning at certain courses than others.

Why this is can be down to many reasons however it is useful to know if you are trying to build your own systems or use my own, especially when picking favourites to LAY or BACK in the win markets on the betting exchanges.

The page is now broken down into National Hunt racing and Flat racing as they each have their own statistics.

You should also check out the Place and Lay bias by course tables:

Favourite Place Bias By Course

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National Hunt Courses / Racing

Course Win % Country
Folkestone 49.47% UK
Leicester 43.04% UK
Punchestown 41.42% IRE
Leopardstown 39.84% IRE
Bangor-On-Dee 39.76% UK
Navan 39.68% IRE
Hereford 39.66% UK
Carlisle 39.63% UK
Newton Abbot 39.21% UK
Ludlow 39.21% UK
Ascot 39.21% UK
Taunton 39.21% UK
Plumpton 39.14% UK
Southwell 38.91% UK
Fakenham 38.89% UK
Wincanton 38.81% UK
Sedgefield 38.6% UK
Tipperary 38.35% IRE
Cartmel 38.21% UK
Towcester 38.11% UK
Newcastle 37.94% UK
Hexham 37.92% UK
Ballinrobe 37.71% IRE
Cork 37.69% IRE
Naas 37.66% IRE
Fontwell Park 37.66% UK
Aintree 37.55% UK
Newbury 37.39% UK
Kempton Park 37.21% UK
Limerick 37.16% IRE
Fairyhouse 37.08% IRE
Stratford Upon Avon 37.07% UK
Gowran Park 37.05% IRE
Doncaster 36.94% UK
Ayr 36.84% UK
Bellewstown 36.84% IRE
Ffos Las 36.79% UK
Huntingdon 36.72% UK
Sligo 36.71% IRE
Wetherby 36.63% UK
Worcester 36.47% UK
Thurles 36.33% IRE
Market Rasen 36.21% UK
Tramore 35.92% IRE
Exeter 35.8% UK
Lingfield Park 35.75% UK
Kilbeggan 35.12% IRE
Musselburgh 35.07% UK
Clonmel 34.6% IRE
Uttoxeter 34.33% UK
Perth 34.29% UK
Warwick 33.68% UK
Wexford 33.33% IRE
Kelso 32.89% UK
Cheltenham 32.34% UK
Haydock Park 32.23% UK
Listowel 32.16% IRE
Galway 31.58% IRE
Chepstow 31.54% UK
Sandown Park 31.5% UK
Roscommon 30.89% IRE
Downpatrick 30.37% IRE
Killarney 30.12% IRE
Down Royal 29.58% IRE
Catterick Bridge 27.48% UK
Wolverhampton 27.27% UK

Flat Courses / Racing

Course Win % Country
Kilbeggan 45.45% IRE
Tipperary 43.17% IRE
Folkestone 41.04% UK
Bellewstown 39.8% IRE
Leicester 39.61% UK
Punchestown 39.39% IRE
Southwell 38.93% UK
Sligo 37.68% IRE
Brighton 37.42% UK
Lingfield Park 37.41% UK
Warwick 37.32% UK
Killarney 36.72% IRE
Windsor 36.62% UK
Haydock Park 36.32% UK
Wolverhampton 35.96% UK
Down Royal 35.77% IRE
Salisbury 35.76% UK
Limerick 35.71% IRE
Newcastle 35.44% UK
Beverley 35.38% UK
Tramore 35.24% IRE
Navan 35.19% IRE
Sandown Park 35.16% UK
Redcar 35.13% UK
Leopardstown 35.01% IRE
Naas 34.96% IRE
Bath 34.9% UK
Laytown 34.48% IRE
Musselburgh 34.38% UK
Clonmel 34.25% IRE
Ripon 34.23% UK
Kempton Park 34.1% UK
Chester 34% UK
Hamilton Park 33.97% UK
Yarmouth 33.92% UK
Curragh 33.81% IRE
Newmarket 33.79% UK
Downpatrick 33.33% IRE
Pontefract 32.43% UK
Fairyhouse 32.39% IRE
Wexford 32.39% IRE
Catterick Bridge 32.33% UK
Ballinrobe 32.29% IRE
Ffos Las 32.19% UK
Carlisle 32.14% UK
Thirsk 31.88% UK
Goodwood 31.61% UK
Epsom Downs 31.47% UK
Ayr 31.25% UK
Dundalk 31.25% IRE
Doncaster 31.03% UK
Listowel 30.77% IRE
Newbury 30.4% UK
Chepstow 29.88% UK
Cork 29.68% IRE
Roscommon 29.56% IRE
Nottingham 29.48% UK
Thurles 28.57% IRE
Galway 27.89% IRE
Ascot 27.68% UK
Gowran Park 27.45% IRE
York 26.56% UK
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