Wednesday, December 12, 2018

A LAY Staking Plan

Using the Diminishing Liability Lay Staking Plan

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster

As we know staking plans are important and when we are laying horses we don’t want to lose our whole bank in one day. Therefore a good plan is advisable – this is where the Diminishing Liability Lay Staking Plan comes in.

Lets say you are starting off with a bank of at least 200 points.

As Betfair’s minimum price for a bet is £2.00 this would mean £400 (£2.00 * 200 = £400) or if you were doing £10 a point it would be £10 * 200 = £2,000.

Lets stick with £10 a point as apart from the fact that you shouldn’t leave a LAY bet to take the SP in case it drifts to a huge price. If you put a LAY bet on the exchange which isn’t matched and then leave it to take the SP then Betfair won’t pay out on SP LAY bets that have a liability less than £10.

For lay bets under 4.00 – 3/1 you would risk a full point e.g £10.00.

Remember the reason the odds are so low is there is more chance of the horse winning (3/1 = 1 out of 3 races) but we are using the Brainiacs huge computer brain to work out advantageous angles where these odds are negated even futher such as jockeys who perform worse on certain tracks, over certain distances, ground not suiting the horse and so on.

So if the horse wins the race you lose 1 point or to calculate the liability you would multiply the stake by the price minus one e.g £10 * (4.00 - 1) = £30.00.

If the horse loses the race then you win your bet of £10.00.
However with the Diminishing Liability Lay Staking Plan the idea is that as the liability grows the amount of stake put on the horse shrinks so that when the big priced winner does come in you don't lose a fortune. From my own stats it seems that around 2 horses a day with a back price of 25/1 or more win a race in UK, Irish and French racing.
So if you are high rolling be warned!
One big winner you laid at a high price without the right staking plan could wipe the majority of your bank out.
The choice of the diminishing stake is yours but an example would be for 1 point = £10 a diminishing liability staking plan on the following priced horses would look like this.
PointsBet AmountOddsWinLose
1£104.00£10£30
0.9£96.00£9£45
0.8£88.00£8£56
0.7£710.00£7£63
0.5£515.00£5£70
0.4£420.00£4£76
0.3£325.00£3£72
0.2£230.00£2£58

As you can see the maximum liability is reached at £4 on a 20.00 - 19/1 bet with a liability of £72 before coming down again as the stakes drop to the minimum £2 bet.
Depending on your starting bank you may want to play around with the figures yourself to get a comfortable risk factor as there is nothing worse than worrying that you are going to lose too much.
If you have a starting bank of £400 then losing £70 in one day is a lot but a bank of £2,000 it isn't especially once you factor in all the winning bets you will get e.g if you laid all the horses in a single race under the odds of 20/1 or 10/1. Even if you lose on one horse winning the other losers might be enough to give you a profit.
Also remember that I would always suggest using a BOT of some kind if you cannot do it manually so that if you match a lay bet at any point you put on a winning bet a few ticks higher and leave it inplay.
This is so that even if your lay bet costs you £70 the win bet makes up for it e.g £10 at 16.00 (one point above the 15.00 that lost you £70) gives you £160 plus your £10 stake backEnough to pay the £70 and still be £90 in profit.
There are many staking plans out there and on my tip results page I am using a basic even £2 per bet (lay, win, place or accumulator) to work out the potential profit or loss.
I am also taking the final LAY SP that my own BOT records before the race and not trying to calculate the best possible price or the availability of trading etc.
Therefore when you see this sentence
"If you had placed a Betfair minimum bet of £2.00 on each bet on EVERY system (Lays, Place Doubles, Wins etc) then you would have lost -£32."
It is only accurate in the sense that:
a) it placed a £2 bet on every single runner whether you were following that system or not e.g a LAY bet when you are just doing PLACE DOUBLES.
b) it took the final LAY SP.
c) it didn't have an upper price limit e.g ignoring bets above 20/1 or 40/1 etc and if the horse was recorded at 150/1 and won the race then it would cause a massive loss when in reality you wouldn't be placing bets on horses with that price.
Therefore be selective in your systems and make sure you find a staking plan that doesn't run your bank out quickly like the diminishing lay staking plan.
I would recommend at least a starting bank of 200 points whether that equals £400 or £4,000, the worth of a point is up to you but be prepared for losing runs and when you make a profit ensure you keep a percentage of it and spend it otherwise there is no point in gambling for investment at all.

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