Wednesday, December 12, 2018

A Place Betting Betfair System

A Place Betting Betfair System

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster

This early evening I spent on Betfair and I thought I would try a new betting system out. Obviously this is only early days but I thought the results were quite good so I would share it with you.

The plan was to was to bet on every favourite either in the standard Place market or the extra place market on the Exchange.

Usually if there are 3 horses to place there will be a 4TBP (4 horses to be placed) market alongside it, and if there's a standard 4 to be placed then a 5TBP market. Sometimes you will find on big occasions like Royal Ascot, Cheltenham or the Grand National I have seen 10 to be placed markets!

Well with 40 runners in the Grand National it gives you a 1 in 4 chance of getting some money back, even if the odds are not that great.

I don't know if these statistics will surprise you or not but I will repeat them anyway. They come from my own huge database of racing results and prices from the Betfair Exchange.

Favourites win 33% of all races, odds on favourites 50% (roughly).

Taking an average over all UK/IRE courses which you can see here on my place favourite bias page, the chance of a favourite coming in the standard place spots ranges from 54.5% at Wolverhampton to 74.24% at Punchestown.

If you add an extra place spot to those stats I reckon the boundaries will jump another 15% to a range of 70% to 85%.

I will do some reporting when I can as this is all based off my own Betfair Exchange statistics and I am not going to pump n dump a phony system on people which is why I have put it in the free betting systems section of the site.

Tonight, the 10th of August 2016, the last favourite Mr Lando, to race in the 21:10 at Kempton Park came 3rd making it 14 favourites in a row to be placed in their races. This is of course using the prices on the exchange NOT the SP. There was one horse who had a better BSP than the SP favourite on the exchange so I counted him as he still won me money.

Now of course the odds are going to be much lower than the normal place market but when there were 5TBP markets you could get prices above evens e.g 2.18 which isn't that bad considering it's the horse with the best chance of winning the race and we regularly get win prices for horses like Minding to win at less than 1.20. So to get a favourite to just come in the top 5 horses at a price of 1.23 I think is good value for the risk you are taking.

Here are a few of the Betfair favourites and the markets and prices I won on tonight.

Cryptic - 2nd - 4 TBP @ 1.71
Hibiscus - 3rd - 3 TBP @ 1.23 (5 horse race)
Finelcity - 1st - 4 TBP @ 1.46
Cirin Toinne - 2nd - 4 TBP @ 2.18

Obviously I am going to look at the strike rate over a longer date range and filter it by going, course and the race type (Flat, AW, NH) to see what kind of risk/reward you would be taking putting much larger bets on. However getting 14 favourites in a row seems pretty good for making money and I want to know if tonight's results were out of the ordinary like Frankie Dettori's full card win at Ascot or a common occurrence. If so it could be quite a money spinner.

It's always good to have some solid systems in your armoury to keep your bank rising for that day when you decide to risk a few hundred quid on a Frankie Dettori runner and he chooses to go off as pacemaker with Ryan Moore on his shoulder just waiting to overtake him in the last 2 furlongs. Anyway enough about Goodwood!

Having a system in which you can be sure you will make a regular profit even if it's not a lot is always good to know, and when I add it to my tennis system and my football cashout system, which are all detailed in this category it could be a good way to boost profits.

Unfortunately I didn't even start betting until after 6pm and the first lot of favourites had won but I can tell you that from the bets I did place my betting bank rose by 22% from this system.

I am not going to tell you how much money I made or show you a fake photo-shopped Betfair balance sheet because I am not a conman trying to trick you into buying something off me.

I am just telling you that tonight by betting on the favourites in the place and extra place markets I increased my betting bank by 22%.

That could be tens, hundreds or thousands of pounds depending on your bank size.

Its obviously up to you if you want to try this system out for yourself and I've only done it for one night so far but I thought I would share it with you in case you want to investigate it yourself.

Good luck!

The UK Horse Racing Tipster

© 2016 The UK Horse Racing Tipster

2 comments:

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