Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Favourite Win Bias

Favourite Win Bias

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster
From my own large database of race history it is clear that certain courses have a better favourite bias than others.
By that I mean that a favourite runner has a higher probability of winning at certain courses than others.
Why this is can be down to many reasons however it is useful to know if you are trying to build your own systems or use my own, especially when picking favourites to LAY or BACK in the win markets on the betting exchanges.
The page is now broken down into National Hunt racing and Flat racing as they each have their own statistics.

National Hunt Courses / Racing

CourseWin %Country
Folkestone49.47%UK
Leicester43.04%UK
Punchestown41.42%IRE
Leopardstown39.84%IRE
Bangor-On-Dee39.76%UK
Navan39.68%IRE
Hereford39.66%UK
Carlisle39.63%UK
Newton Abbot39.21%UK
Ludlow39.21%UK
Ascot39.21%UK
Taunton39.21%UK
Plumpton39.14%UK
Southwell38.91%UK
Fakenham38.89%UK
Wincanton38.81%UK
Sedgefield38.6%UK
Tipperary38.35%IRE
Cartmel38.21%UK
Towcester38.11%UK
Newcastle37.94%UK
Hexham37.92%UK
Ballinrobe37.71%IRE
Cork37.69%IRE
Naas37.66%IRE
Fontwell Park37.66%UK
Aintree37.55%UK
Newbury37.39%UK
Kempton Park37.21%UK
Limerick37.16%IRE
Fairyhouse37.08%IRE
Stratford Upon Avon37.07%UK
Gowran Park37.05%IRE
Doncaster36.94%UK
Ayr36.84%UK
Bellewstown36.84%IRE
Ffos Las36.79%UK
Huntingdon36.72%UK
Sligo36.71%IRE
Wetherby36.63%UK
Worcester36.47%UK
Thurles36.33%IRE
Market Rasen36.21%UK
Tramore35.92%IRE
Exeter35.8%UK
Lingfield Park35.75%UK
Kilbeggan35.12%IRE
Musselburgh35.07%UK
Clonmel34.6%IRE
Uttoxeter34.33%UK
Perth34.29%UK
Warwick33.68%UK
Wexford33.33%IRE
Kelso32.89%UK
Cheltenham32.34%UK
Haydock Park32.23%UK
Listowel32.16%IRE
Galway31.58%IRE
Chepstow31.54%UK
Sandown Park31.5%UK
Roscommon30.89%IRE
Downpatrick30.37%IRE
Killarney30.12%IRE
Down Royal29.58%IRE
Catterick Bridge27.48%UK
Wolverhampton27.27%UK

Flat Courses / Racing

CourseWin %Country
Kilbeggan45.45%IRE
Tipperary43.17%IRE
Folkestone41.04%UK
Bellewstown39.8%IRE
Leicester39.61%UK
Punchestown39.39%IRE
Southwell38.93%UK
Sligo37.68%IRE
Brighton37.42%UK
Lingfield Park37.41%UK
Warwick37.32%UK
Killarney36.72%IRE
Windsor36.62%UK
Haydock Park36.32%UK
Wolverhampton35.96%UK
Down Royal35.77%IRE
Salisbury35.76%UK
Limerick35.71%IRE
Newcastle35.44%UK
Beverley35.38%UK
Tramore35.24%IRE
Navan35.19%IRE
Sandown Park35.16%UK
Redcar35.13%UK
Leopardstown35.01%IRE
Naas34.96%IRE
Bath34.9%UK
Laytown34.48%IRE
Musselburgh34.38%UK
Clonmel34.25%IRE
Ripon34.23%UK
Kempton Park34.1%UK
Chester34%UK
Hamilton Park33.97%UK
Yarmouth33.92%UK
Curragh33.81%IRE
Newmarket33.79%UK
Downpatrick33.33%IRE
Pontefract32.43%UK
Fairyhouse32.39%IRE
Wexford32.39%IRE
Catterick Bridge32.33%UK
Ballinrobe32.29%IRE
Ffos Las32.19%UK
Carlisle32.14%UK
Thirsk31.88%UK
Goodwood31.61%UK
Epsom Downs31.47%UK
Ayr31.25%UK
Dundalk31.25%IRE
Doncaster31.03%UK
Listowel30.77%IRE
Newbury30.4%UK
Chepstow29.88%UK
Cork29.68%IRE
Roscommon29.56%IRE
Nottingham29.48%UK
Thurles28.57%IRE
Galway27.89%IRE
Ascot27.68%UK
Gowran Park27.45%IRE
York26.56%UK

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