Favourite Win Bias By Course and Race Type
By The UK Horse Racing Tipster
You can find an updated version of these stats from 2022 here: Course Favourite Win Strike Rates.
From my own large database of race history, it is clear that certain courses have a better favourite bias than others.
By that, I mean that a favourite runner has a higher probability of winning at certain courses than others.
Why this is can be down to many reasons however it is useful to know if you are trying to build your own systems or use my own, especially when picking favourites to LAY or BACK in the win markets on the betting exchanges.
The page is now broken down into National Hunt racing and Flat racing as they each have their own statistics.
National Hunt Courses / Racing
| Course | Win % | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Folkestone | 49.47% | UK |
| Leicester | 43.04% | UK |
| Punchestown | 41.42% | IRE |
| Leopardstown | 39.84% | IRE |
| Bangor-On-Dee | 39.76% | UK |
| Navan | 39.68% | IRE |
| Hereford | 39.66% | UK |
| Carlisle | 39.63% | UK |
| Newton Abbot | 39.21% | UK |
| Ludlow | 39.21% | UK |
| Ascot | 39.21% | UK |
| Taunton | 39.21% | UK |
| Plumpton | 39.14% | UK |
| Southwell | 38.91% | UK |
| Fakenham | 38.89% | UK |
| Wincanton | 38.81% | UK |
| Sedgefield | 38.6% | UK |
| Tipperary | 38.35% | IRE |
| Cartmel | 38.21% | UK |
| Towcester | 38.11% | UK |
| Newcastle | 37.94% | UK |
| Hexham | 37.92% | UK |
| Ballinrobe | 37.71% | IRE |
| Cork | 37.69% | IRE |
| Naas | 37.66% | IRE |
| Fontwell Park | 37.66% | UK |
| Aintree | 37.55% | UK |
| Newbury | 37.39% | UK |
| Kempton Park | 37.21% | UK |
| Limerick | 37.16% | IRE |
| Fairyhouse | 37.08% | IRE |
| Stratford Upon Avon | 37.07% | UK |
| Gowran Park | 37.05% | IRE |
| Doncaster | 36.94% | UK |
| Ayr | 36.84% | UK |
| Bellewstown | 36.84% | IRE |
| Ffos Las | 36.79% | UK |
| Huntingdon | 36.72% | UK |
| Sligo | 36.71% | IRE |
| Wetherby | 36.63% | UK |
| Worcester | 36.47% | UK |
| Thurles | 36.33% | IRE |
| Market Rasen | 36.21% | UK |
| Tramore | 35.92% | IRE |
| Exeter | 35.8% | UK |
| Lingfield Park | 35.75% | UK |
| Kilbeggan | 35.12% | IRE |
| Musselburgh | 35.07% | UK |
| Clonmel | 34.6% | IRE |
| Uttoxeter | 34.33% | UK |
| Perth | 34.29% | UK |
| Warwick | 33.68% | UK |
| Wexford | 33.33% | IRE |
| Kelso | 32.89% | UK |
| Cheltenham | 32.34% | UK |
| Haydock Park | 32.23% | UK |
| Listowel | 32.16% | IRE |
| Galway | 31.58% | IRE |
| Chepstow | 31.54% | UK |
| Sandown Park | 31.5% | UK |
| Roscommon | 30.89% | IRE |
| Downpatrick | 30.37% | IRE |
| Killarney | 30.12% | IRE |
| Down Royal | 29.58% | IRE |
| Catterick Bridge | 27.48% | UK |
| Wolverhampton | 27.27% | UK |
Flat Courses / Racing
| Course | Win % | Country |
|---|---|---|
| Kilbeggan | 45.45% | IRE |
| Tipperary | 43.17% | IRE |
| Folkestone | 41.04% | UK |
| Bellewstown | 39.8% | IRE |
| Leicester | 39.61% | UK |
| Punchestown | 39.39% | IRE |
| Southwell | 38.93% | UK |
| Sligo | 37.68% | IRE |
| Brighton | 37.42% | UK |
| Lingfield Park | 37.41% | UK |
| Warwick | 37.32% | UK |
| Killarney | 36.72% | IRE |
| Windsor | 36.62% | UK |
| Haydock Park | 36.32% | UK |
| Wolverhampton | 35.96% | UK |
| Down Royal | 35.77% | IRE |
| Salisbury | 35.76% | UK |
| Limerick | 35.71% | IRE |
| Newcastle | 35.44% | UK |
| Beverley | 35.38% | UK |
| Tramore | 35.24% | IRE |
| Navan | 35.19% | IRE |
| Sandown Park | 35.16% | UK |
| Redcar | 35.13% | UK |
| Leopardstown | 35.01% | IRE |
| Naas | 34.96% | IRE |
| Bath | 34.9% | UK |
| Laytown | 34.48% | IRE |
| Musselburgh | 34.38% | UK |
| Clonmel | 34.25% | IRE |
| Ripon | 34.23% | UK |
| Kempton Park | 34.1% | UK |
| Chester | 34% | UK |
| Hamilton Park | 33.97% | UK |
| Yarmouth | 33.92% | UK |
| Curragh | 33.81% | IRE |
| Newmarket | 33.79% | UK |
| Downpatrick | 33.33% | IRE |
| Pontefract | 32.43% | UK |
| Fairyhouse | 32.39% | IRE |
| Wexford | 32.39% | IRE |
| Catterick Bridge | 32.33% | UK |
| Ballinrobe | 32.29% | IRE |
| Ffos Las | 32.19% | UK |
| Carlisle | 32.14% | UK |
| Thirsk | 31.88% | UK |
| Goodwood | 31.61% | UK |
| Epsom Downs | 31.47% | UK |
| Ayr | 31.25% | UK |
| Dundalk | 31.25% | IRE |
| Doncaster | 31.03% | UK |
| Listowel | 30.77% | IRE |
| Newbury | 30.4% | UK |
| Chepstow | 29.88% | UK |
| Cork | 29.68% | IRE |
| Roscommon | 29.56% | IRE |
| Nottingham | 29.48% | UK |
| Thurles | 28.57% | IRE |
| Galway | 27.89% | IRE |
| Ascot | 27.68% | UK |
| Gowran Park | 27.45% | IRE |
| York | 26.56% | UK |
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