Wednesday, December 12, 2018

Managing Risk

Managing Risk – The key to a winning betting system

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster #

I constantly get asked for free racing tips.

“I’m going racing this weekend, I want 5 winners and nothing else”, is the usual attitude. No ifs or buts, just give me some winners, and preferably the whole card!

However if there was one tip I would always give someone going racing, it would be to use the bookmakers money to bet with not your own! 

If you are going betting for the day then I would sign up to online betting sites beforehand and place any bets before going to the track.


Well multiple reasons: The 3G / 4G phone signal is usually very poor at a racetrack due to all the people and bookies using it. Therefore if you don’t use an online bookies beforehand you won’t be able to at the course.

Instead you will spend your time queuing up in massive crowds to place bets and possibly collect a wad of fake twenties (depending on where you go!).

Instead of enjoying the racing and not having to worry about moving from your prime viewing spot you will be constantly hustled and bustled.

You won’t get any special offers at the track. Why they don’t do this I don’t know as the online bookies are murdering them.

Join multiple online betting sites and make use of their special offers for new members and leave.

Sites will also have special offers for big events like the Grand National or the Derby. Some sites pay out 6 or 7 places on the National whilst your local Bookmakers shop will only pay 4. Thereofe look around and make use of the best offers available. Always try to use their money to bet with not your own! 

You can spend your day enjoying your racing, knowing the bets have been placed before hand and probably at a better price than on course.

Write the tips down on a bit of paper and take them with you in-case you forget!

However betting online means you get free bets, refunds and best odds deals that on-course bookmakers just won’t offer you.

However this article isn’t about how you should bet when you go out it’s aimed at those of you who have either written your own betting BOT (using Betfair or BETDAQ’s API) or those of you who want to know how to make money from betting.

I spent 3 years writing my own AutoBOT and it works, however even with over 515 systems at this point in time, it is not the actual system’s that make the money but something else - risk management.

If you cannot manage your own money then your probably in trouble anyway. Yet I admit to the world, I am useless with budgeting, saving and not getting into debt. I’m a bloke for God’s sake, what do you expect me to do when I am down the pub and it’s a choice between being sensible, saving my money and having a quiet night in or having another five pints?

This is why I wrote my AutoBOT. I wanted a computer system with a bookies brain and some artificial intelligence to make the bets for me. This was so I only had to look at my phone now and then to see how much I was betting and get a nightly email that told me my profit/loss for the day.

I wanted to take my sticky, messy fingers out of all betting decisions and leave it up to my computer.

It knows the statistics of every course, the chances that a favourite will win at Ascot or York and the types of races, jockeys, trainers and horses that have a higher win % than the others. Which yards and trainers are in form and which jockeys and trainers are out of form.

It all matters but it’s all a lot of information that your brain may not be able to handle at once. So whilst I cannot divulge 3 years worth of programming skills in one little article I can give you some key tips. 

These are the key rules that have insured I have made money and keep making money. 

If you want to code these into your own API / Betting BOT then do so, if not you can still do it by hand. Good risk management is the key to keeping your money and paying the rent or risking it all on a buzz and possibly losing it because you got greedy.

Walk away when you are ahead and don't decide to have another bet just because you have money in your pocket. If you must bet again, take out your original stake AND some profit and ONLY bet with excess profit you have already made.

Never chase loses. If it's not your day and every bet seems to lose then stop and walk away. There is always another day to bet. Chasing bets just leads to losing more money so stop and hope that tomorrow will be a better day.

Plan for the whole day or even week if a festival is on. If you are doing accumulators don't just look at the days card for Cheltenham look at the whole week. You could place an accumulator on the first day and lose or you could pick a top horse or two from the best inform runners at a festival and make an accumulator that carries on over the week.

Why only go for WIN bets? Use the Betfair Exchange and use the PLACE markets to make money more safely. It may take a longer time but multi day place accumulators have led me to make a load of money and you can see examples of these on the UK HOT TIPS website.

If you want to go for a WIN accumulator then pick the best looking horse for the day and bet on it. Then take that money and place it on the next best looking horse the day after. If there isn't one that stands out leave it alone, there is no rule that says you must bet every day. Betting on the top looking runners day by day will lead to more money than just trying to form an accumulator for the day.

Take your profit out as soon as possible when doing multi day or same day accumulators. You don't have to use the betting slip to make an accumulator. Pick a horse and if it wins, take 80% of the winnings out for the next leg of the bet and keep 20% for yourself. This way the more legs that go on the more chance you will have reclaimed your initial stake and only risked the houses money. If you can remove your profit and carry on betting with winnings only then do so. This way you are not risking your own money but betting with the bookmakers cash only!

Good risk management covers all possible scenarios. It will help you during good AND bad times. Risk management is key when it comes to betting so get your head round it as it will save you more cash than you can possibly know!

By The UK Horse Racing Tipster


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